Form a Hold Em Poker strategy by understanding poker basics and poker odds

Poker basics start with obtaining an understanding of the underlying poker math and short-term luck swings.

This is the fourth in a series of Texas Hold Em Poker articles by Tex Canuck.

I ran a limit game simulation with a table full of Dopey Dave players that did nothing but check and call all the way to the river. Using the same deal Number 400 as before, I stopped the deal after 100, 200, 500, 1000, 5000 and 10,000 hands. I recorded the results at each stage of a $2-$4 limit game.

The results show that the lucky player for the first one hundred hands was seat number 5 who won at almost twice the long-term rate. The unlucky player was seat 6 and showed a big loss winning at less than half the long-term expectancy.

Examining the results after 200 hands had been played we can see that seat 4 was the lucky winner between 101 and 200 hands winning $106.00. Seats 6 and 10 were the unluckiest losing $80.00 each. For many players these two hundred hands would represent one or two average playing sessions.

After 500 hands, we find that the luck of seat 6 continues to run badly. Seat 9 has experienced a good run of luck and now shows a profit. After being, the lucky player at the start seat 5 has seen a bad run of luck and is now losing money.

As the game continues through 1,000, 5,000 and 10,000 hands player luck continues to swing back and forth. It should be noted that after 10,000 thousand hands, which represents 1-2 years of play for those that play once a week, half of the players are showing a profit. The number and percentage of wins for all players is moving toward the mathematical average of 11.3% win percent.

The poker basics chart is below.

Are these players really experiencing good and bad luck or are they just experiencing expected swing variances? Are the long-term losses that they will all suffer because of bad luck or is it because they lack poker basics? Can basic poker skillful play change the results? By running the same simulation and inserting, a few players that have some poker skill we will discover what affect skilled players applying poker basics will have on the results.

It is important to understand that in these simulations not one single player is playing poker. Oh sure they think they are playing poker but it might as well be a bingo game because there is no player interaction or application of any skill that may affect the outcome of the hand.

Summary: The simulation clearly shows that over a small number of hands there is an apparent “luck of the cards” that is determining the big winner or loser. A hundred hands represent 3 – 4 hours of play, which is an average session for many casual players. The players in this game measured each session by the “I got lucky or unlucky tonight” conclusion. This poker basics conclusion is, in a way, true but if these players tracked 10,000 hands, they would find that all players are more or less equally lucky although they all lose because of the rake. Skilled players understand and accept the short-term variances and are able to see the bigger long-term picture.

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